Trump’s claim that tariffs historically brought the U.S. good fortune has some basis if you look at certain periods, like the late 19th century. Back then, tariffs were a major revenue source—before income tax was a thing—and they protected fledgling American industries from European competition.
The U.S. economy grew like crazy, becoming an industrial powerhouse by the early 20th century. Think steel, railroads, manufacturing—all got a boost while foreign goods were priced out. Data backs this: from 1870 to 1913, U.S. GDP growth averaged around 4% annually, and tariffs often hovered above 40% on dutiable imports.
But the world’s not the same. That growth happened in a less connected, less globalized economy. Today, supply chains are sprawling—your phone’s parts might come from a dozen countries. Tariffs now can disrupt that, jacking up costs for businesses and consumers.
Look at Trump’s own 2018 tariffs: the 25% steel and 10% aluminum duties. Studies, like from the Peterson Institute, estimate they saved maybe 8,700 U.S. jobs in those sectors but cost consumers $900,000 per job saved through higher prices. Meanwhile, retaliatory tariffs from China hit U.S. farmers hard—soybean exports to China tanked by 50% in 2019.
The flip side? Tariffs can still flex muscle. They’re leverage in trade talks—China blinked a bit during the trade war, agreeing to buy more U.S. goods in the 2020 Phase One deal. And some argue they could rebuild domestic industries if targeted smartly, like with semiconductors or green tech. But the catch is execution: broad, blunt tariffs tend to scattershot—hitting allies like Canada as much as rivals like China—while global trade rules (WTO) and alliances complicate things compared to the 1800s.
So, do they “work” today? Depends on the goal. If it’s about revenue or protectionism, they can move the needle but come with trade-offs—higher costs, pissed-off trading partners, and a gamble on whether industries actually revive. If it’s about geopolitics, they’re a bargaining chip, but the world’s too tangled for the old-school tariff magic to just repeat itself. History says they can win battles; modern data says they’re less likely to win wars.
